Urban Expansion (CA) Modeling of Tbilisi on the Background of Active Terrain Transformation

Author: Lela Gadrani
Keywords: CA, GIS, SLEUTH, urban planning
Annotation:

As an established megalopolis the landscape of Tbilisi is closely linked with ecological problems and urbanization in general. The main factor contributing to these transformations in the enduring human activity. Sustainability of environment, proper investigations of its endogenous and exogenous factors and processes are the most important factors for functioning of Tbilisi as a capital city. Development of infrastructure and public-housing objects held during last decade has the direct reflection on terrain of Tbilisi. This research of terrain of Tbilisi and its anthropogenic transformation is topical issue. It should be noted that individuality of Tbilisi relief has led to its modern urban state. Therefore, relief is one of the driving forces of development of Tbilisi and any decision on future planning of the city must be made according to the relief. Urban area constantly used to be changed and even today it undergoes changes. The problem became more topical in the beginning of the 21th century. For the last period it is 2.5 times increased. Pressing increased by the activity of humans became evident, lands intended for the construction time by time becomes more scarce and expensive resource and construction on the risk areas are included on the agenda that will be by all means followed by geo-ecologic disasters. As a result of great anthropogenic impacts 2/5 of Tbilisi’s territory is developed but the rest are transformed. Tbilisi also undergoes transformation and reconstruction of urban planning structure. Urban development includes changes of all main parameters and elements of urban planning system: transformation of suburbs to urban environment, construction of main roads, decrease of capital’s green zone, lack of recreation areas, quick rate of urbanization, quick rate of integration of suburbs to city and many others, problems of Tbilisi urban development on all levels of its structure are quite urgent. The scenarios for future development of the city on the background of above mentioned problems is very interesting. The CA (cellular automata) system is also widely used during such modelling. The SLEUTH and its variations are the most efficient, for the generating of the future development of urbanisation. Thus the SLEUTH will be used for the model of Tbilisi. Simultaneously the ASTER and SRTM-DEM were used during the modelling. Information about the landscape, land use, transport networks, historical data and satellite imagery were analysed to create such a model. The information from national census (1989, 2002, 2014) was used to analyse the demographic situation in Tbilisi. After gathering all the appropriate data and the analysis the transformations in the populated areas of Tbilisi studied focusing on the period from 1960-1990 and 1990-2016. Then, the future predictions were created.